BIG EAST GAME PREVIEW: Louisville @ Villanova

January 30, 2006


Prior to the season, Big Monday looked to have a marquee Big East match-up with Louisville travelling to meet Villanova for a battle of two of the top teams in the conference. However, in the first month of conference play, only one of these two teams have kept up their end of the bargain.

Villanova is gunning to become the first Big East team to seven conference wins as they enter tonight's contest with a 6-1 mark in league play. The Wildcats edged South Florida and Notre Dame on the road last week and return home to Philadelphis for tonight's game.

Louisville enters the conference mid-point mark at 2-5 in league play following their loss on the road to Rutgers at the RAC on Saturday. The Cardinals are in desperate need of wins and have already suffered a home loss to Villanova in their conference opener.

Here are a list of preview stories on the game from the internet:

UL Not Giving Up Hope Yet (Louisville Courier-Journal)
Louisville Just a Big East Baby (Philadelphia Inquirer)
Pitino's Brickinos Can't Solve Shooting Woes (Lexington Herald-Leader)

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Villanova enters tonight's game as 10-pt favorites over the Louisville Cardinals. Villanova won the first meeting between the two teams at Freedom Hall, 76-67. With thier unique 4-guard line-up, the Wildcats will again look to apply pressure on the ball against Louisville and force them to play a little faster than they would like. In their first meeting, the undersized Wildcats out-rebounded the bigger Cards, 42-34, including 13-7 on the offensive boards, and Louisville struggled shooting, hitting just 3-20 from 3-pt range against the perimeter pressure.

Louisville has lost three of their last four conference game and has been abysmal offensively in those losses ((SJU, UConn, Rutgers) averaging just 57 PPG and shooting 14-64 from 3-pt range (22%). Not what one would expect from a Rick Pitino team.

Taquan Dean is back for Louisville and has averaged 14.5 PPG in 27 minutes a game since returning from a high ankle sprain. He is still not 100% and battling the Villanova on the ball pressure will not be an easy task for a healthy guard. David Padgett and Juan Palacios must step up and help alleviate the pressure on the guards by being able to create their own opportunities and be available for the ball. Adjusting to the physical and intense nature of Big East basketball has been a slow process for their finesse-style big men, but lingering injuries have hampered any consistency they might have been able to produce.

Villanova is a team full of experience and skill. The fact that they can continue to outrebound opponents on sheer determination and effort is remarkable, even when their shots are not falling from the perimeter, they dig down even harder on the defensive end and are willing to do what it takes to ear the W. They are an excellent free throw shooting team that thrives in the pressure situations.

Louisville knows they need to start winning games, home and on the road, but finding the right mix tonight is going to be very difficult.

NBE Blogger Prediction:

Villanova 74 Louisville 63

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BIG EAST GAME PREVIEW: Villanova @ Notre Dame

January 28, 2006

Some of the biggest upsets in college basketball history have come on the Notre Dame campus, although an Irish win on Saturday would hardly fall into that category, it would be quite a win for a team in desperate need of something good to happen!

The Irish prepare to take on the Villanova Wildcats, who are 5-1 in the Big East Conference, while Notre Dame sits close to the bottom of the conference at 1-5. One could argue that over the course of their last six games the Irish have played fairly well, just coming up short, while, the Wildcats, in their last six games, have not been playing all that well, just getting enough to win four of those games. So, does this game reverse the trend for either club?

For our the rest of our preview and prediction on the game, click below!

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First thing of interest is the sore hamstring of Villanova star guard Allan Ray. Ray missed Villanova's narrow 49-46 win at South Florida earlier this week and had not practiced during the week at all. Villanova was impressive in their win against Syracuse last Saturday, but in their last six games, that was the only time that impressive really fits as a term in describing the Wildcats. However, when a team is forced to go with predominately a 4-guard line-up, shooting and defense will be what carries them through. To their credit, when their shooting has let them down, their defense has remained consistent, allowing them to survive on most nights. Even if they are forced to go to a 3-guard line-up, their match-ups with the Irish are still pretty favorable as their style of perimeter defense could give the Irish preimeter trio of Chris Quinn, Kyle McAlarney and Colin Falls all they can handle with their athleticism and extended on the ball pressure, taking their shooters out of their comfort zone. Notre Dame should be able to make some progress inside with their group of Torin Francis, Rob Kurz, Luke Zeller and Ricky Cornett against Will Sheridan, Jason Fraser, Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark, but the way the Irish inside game has been utilized and cultivated, it is unlikely to be much of an advantage.

There is no way that Notre Dame could defense the athletic group of guards Villanova will put on the floor man to man. Randy Foye, Mike Nardi and Kyle Lowry would have a field day putting the ball on the floor and utilizing dribble penetration to score on their own, dish to the big men once help is needed or kicking back out for an open 3 if the defense pinches to help. Of course, having a healthy Allan Ray knocking down the perimeter shots would be a big help in this game plan. The Irish would likely use a lot of Russel Carter to help on the perimeter defense and could go really small in a line-up with him, too.

Kyle Lowry seems to really be the x-factor in this game. Even if the Irish do all they can to limit the rest of the Wildcats, there probably is no answer for Lowry. His presence really poses match-up problems and if they have to adjust for him, then look out of Foye and Ray getting their games going. This just seems to be one of those nightmare match-ups for the Irish who seem a step slow at getting key rebounds or big defensive stops. That is not a good sign against a team like Villanova, who will make you play small and quick. The Irish do not play big enough to try to impose their will, so it looks to be a bad match-up, even at home.

However, something tells me Notre Dame stays in this, with a chance to surprise. Villanova's shooting has not been that great lately and Ray's questionable status worries me a bit. But, Villanova is a little deeper than given credit for and they pull out a close one.

NBE Blogger Prediction:

Villanova 68 Notre Dame 64

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BIG EAST GAME PREVIEW: Villanova @ South Florida

January 24, 2006


Villanova heads out on the road this week to face South Florida (tonight) and Notre Dame (Saturday). The Wildcats are 4-1 in the conference coming off Saturday's 80-65 win over Syracuse in the Wachovia Center.

South Florida looked like they were going to come away with their first conference win Friday night at Seton Hall but a furious rally late by the Pirates forced overtime and the Bulls simply ran out of options and fell, 94-89. The Bulls have lost seven straight and nine of their last 10 and sit at 0-5 in their first season in the Big East.

The Philadelphia Daily News loos at the competitive nature of the conference and that in this physical league, there are no gimmes: (Big) East Common Denominator.

The Tampa Tribune also previews the game: No Easy Welcome Home for the Bulls.

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Villanova enters the game as 15-pt favorites, and being on the road, against a team that has lost by just 4 pts to WVU (Home), 3 pts to Georgetown (road), 6 pts to Syracuse (road) and 5 pts in OT to SHU (road), that might seem like a lot. But, it is the other Big East loss that USF suffered that kind of sticks out to me, 68-49 at home to St John's.

Villanova relies on a guard-heavy, on the ball pressure attack that is athletically driven. St John's also pressures the ball so hard with strong and physical guards that this is the type of match-up that the undermanned Bulls could find themsevles run out of their own building very early.

South Florida is going to have to make the game very ugly and hope Villanova has another off shooting night. USF is prone to turnovers and Villanova loves to force them with their guards hounding the ball and forcing the offense to be run outside of its normal comfort zone. I just do not see South Florida being able to withstand this pressure with their lack of depth and talent at the guard positions.

I look for the Bulls to have a lot of trouble finding ways to put points on the board tonight and the Wildcats to cruise behind their 4-guard attack with Randy Foye and Allan Ray being too much, on both sides of the ball, for USF.

NBE Blogger Prediction:

Villanova 74 South Florida 55

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BIG EAST GAME PREVIEW: Seton Hall @ Villanova

January 17, 2006


Villanova returns home after a couple hard fought road games last week, winning 84-78 in overtime at Rutgers and losing 58-55 on the road to Texas. Seton Hall dropped a home game ot Marquette last week, 67-63. Tonight, the 18-pt favorite Wildcats look to regain their shooting touch at the expense of the Pirates.

Seton Hall does take pride in their defense and it will be tested, especially on the perimeter, by the 4-guard look that Villanova will use for a good portion of the game with Mike Nardi, Allan Ray, Randy Foye and Kyle Lowry sharing time together often. They will rotate in Will Sheridan, Jason Fraser, Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark in the frontcourt as well.

Seton Hall could possibly match-up if they go with a line-up of Donald Copeland, Jamar Nutter, Stan Gaines and Kelly Whitney with either Paul Gause, Carl Marshall and Brian Laing rotating in. Grant Billmeier and Marcus Cousin would also rotate in with Whitney and to go a little bigger. They do have options, but their ballhandling and perimeter offense lags well behind the quartet that Villanova is going to go with and with the pressure Villanova is going to apply the Seton Hall guards, this is a tough, tough test for the Pirates. Add in the fact Donald Copeland is a little gimpy yet from an awkward fall in the Marquette game, and, one is not going to give Seton Hall much hope as they play in the on-campus Pavilion at Villanova.

Seton Hall is really going to have to buckle down defensively against Villanova and find ways to score themselves. I can see them doing one or the other tonight, but not both and Villanova always shoots well in the Pavilion. I do not expect tonight to be any different.

NBE Blogger Prediction:

Villanova 81 Seton Hall 64

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BIG EAST GAME PREVIEW: Villanova @ Rutgers

January 11, 2006

Last year, these two teams hooked up and it was no contest as the Rutgers season began to implode around the time of their 94-61 home loss to Villanova. Rutgers is coming off a 82-78 win in the RAC against Seton Hall over the weekend and now welcome in a group of Wildcats that might be a little testy after their 91-87 home loss to West Virginia on Sunday.

Villanova, a 9-pt road favorite, features their four-guard line-up and Rutgers is also a team that prefers to play small and get into a helter-skelter type of game, forcing turnovers and capitalizing with the 3-pt shot. Rutgers have gone on long stretches this year struggling to score points and outside of Quincy Douby, it is very unlikely they have another offensive presence to keep up with the firepower the Wildcats will put on the floor at every position on the perimeter.

Defensively Villanova is very good at locking down the periemter and forcing the offense to set up out of their comfort zone. With a freshmen point guard, Anthony Farmer, for Rutgers, it will definitely be trial by fire as he will have to battle 1st-team all-conference guards in Allan Ray and Randy Foye and the tough Kyle Lowry.

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Villanova committed 22 turnovers against West Virginia, leading to their downfall. They will definitely concentrate on taking better care of the ball and their defensive effort and intensity will look to be taken up a notch for this one. Their former assistant Fred Hill, jr will be on the Rutgers bench, adding another subplot to this game.

For Rutgers, they will need a big game from Quincy Douby, but they will also need other players to step up. JR Inman is one that needs to have a good game and take advantage of his size offensively and Farmer needs to limit his mistakes against the guards of Villanova.

I think Rutgers will come out with a much improved effort, but they can not keep up offensively for 40 minutes and Villanova pulls away at the end of the first half, withstands an early 2nd half run from the Scarlet Knights and pulls away over the last 10 minutes.

NBE Blogger Prediction:

Villanova 80 Rutgers 65

Leae your prediction in the comment section!

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BIG EAST GAME PREVIEW: Villanova @ Louisville

January 5, 2005


When the new Big East was put together, this was a match-up that everyone was ready to see right away and the conference delivers in the first week of conference play. So far the home team has prevailed in all four conference games to date, will that trend continue?

Currently, Villanova is the #1 rated team in the Pomeroy Computer Ratings and the Pomeroy Computer expects a 9-pt win for the Wildcats over Louisville, their 42nd ranked team, in Freedom Hall tonight. One word of caution, that was the exact same pick the computer had with UConn over Marquette.

So far this season, Villanova has raced out to a 9-0 start and a #5 RPI rating versus a strength of schedule rank of 49. They are 3-0 against the top 50 and 5-0 overall against the top 100. Louisville, meanwhile, is off to an 11-1 start, albeit it against considerably less competition with a SOS rank of 191. They have yet to beat a top 50 team (losing at Kentucky) and are 2-1 against the top 100 to date.

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Villanova has yet to venture too far from home, leaving the state of Pennslvania just twice to play in nearby Trenton and Atlantic City against Rider and Longwood and played away from Philadelphia just one other time, at Bucknell. They had an impressive home win over Oklahoma on their campus and, as everyone knows, they use their 4-guard line-up to pressure the ball just over half court on defense and create open looks from the perimeter from their ability to breakdown defenses and dish to the open shooter.

Villanova is led by their two all-conference senior guards, Allan Ray and Randy Foye. Ray averages 20.4 PPG and is a true NCAA shooting guard. When he is on, he will hit shots from beyond the arc at will, where about 65% of his shot attempts come from. He also hits over 90% of his free throws. Foye averages 20.3 PPG and leads the team in rebounds (5.8/game) and assists (4.2/game) and has been playing like an All-American with his all-around game this year. Mike Nardi has improved his consistency this year, scoring nearly 13 PPG and shooting 49% from the floor and 46% from 3-pt range, both big improvements over last year. The fourth member of the 4-headed guard monster for Villanova is their energy man, Kyle Lowry. Lowry is averaging 10 PPG, 4 rebounds, almost 4 assists and leads the team with 1.8 steals a game in 24 minutes (he missed the large part of 2 games with a minor injury to skew the stats a little bit). These four account for 77% of Villanova's scoring output and they use senior Jason Fraser (5 PPG, 4 RPG), junior Will Sheridan (5 PPG, 5 RPG) and frosh Dante Cunningham (3 PPG, 4 RPG) in a rotation at the 5 and about 20 minutes at the 4, when they are not using their 4-guard look. Freshmen Shane Clark, who saw his first action of the season against Temple could also figure in this mix as time goes on, but I do not expect him to be much of a factor tonight.

With Louisville, we are just not exactly sure of what they have yet. They only have three returning scholarship players that see significant time and are led by senior Taquan Dean, their leading scorer at 16.7 PPG. Dean also averages over 6 rebounds a game and leads the team in assists (4.0/game). Dean shoots a lot (173 attempts on the year) and is off to a slow start, for him, at 38% from the floor and less than 35% from 3-pt range. The added responsibility has left him a little less effecient than in the past. The other three main players are junior Brandon Jenkins (12 PPG, 3 rpg, 3 apg and leads the team with 1.7 steals/game), sophomore transfer David Padgett(11.6 ppg, team leading 6.5 rpg, 2.4 apg and team high 1.5 blocks/game) and sophomore Juan Palacios (11 PPG, 6 rpg). Palacios and Padgett missed almost the entire preseason due to a variety of foot and ankle injuries that have led to them still rounding into shape, even as conference play begins. Athletic freshmen Terrence Williams leads their group of frosh with 7.6 PPG and 4.5 rebounds and frosh PG Andre McGee also sees plenty of action and adds 4 PPG. Highly regarded redshirt freshmen big man Brian Johnson has also been hobbled by knee problems, but gives the Cardinals some more depth up front. It is a tough match-up for him.

Lately, Louisville has been playing more and more zone defense, which is the right move, in my opinion, when playing Villanova, despite their ability to hit from the perimeter. A zone could be extended against Villanova, not worrying about a soft middle too much, and help with the dribble penetration against the Villanova guards. They have to keep from contracting too much and allowing the open perimeter look. Louisville should have a decided advantage on the boards. It will be interesting to see how the Louisville guards handle the Villanova on the ball pressure which works to force the offense to be run outside the comfort zone of their normal offense. I do think Louisville is a little suspect on their perimeter ball-handling as a team and Villanova will try to cause havoc here.

This is a really tough game to predict. I am not sure if Louisville has played a team that is this quick and this strong on the perimeter. Kentucky was a good test for them and they were never in the game, but this time, they are home. I think their zone will slow down the Villanova offense, which averages over 80 PPG, but I do not think their big men have the hunker-down, impose their will mentality to take advantage of a 4-guard line-up in the half court. A great shooting night from Dean would help, but the Wildcats offensive firepower will hit at the right time and their experience will show they can handle this tough spot.

NBE Blogger Prediction:

Villanova 74 Louisville 68

Please leave your prediction in the comments section!!

So far, the NBE Blogger is 3-1 picking games outright and 2-2 against posted spreads. Villanova is a 3-pt road favorite tonight.

Here are some game preview stories from around the net:

Rick Bozich of the Louisville Courier-Journal: Its Finally Time for the Real College Hoops Season.
Cards Open with a Biggie (Louisville C-J)
Card's Begin Murderer's Row (Lexington Herald-Leader)
Cardinals Defense Getting Better (Louisville C-J)
Nova vs Louisville a Revival Meeting (Philly Daily News)
First Big test for Villanova (Delaware County Times)

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