Villanova Season Preview

Do you think Jay Wright is familiar with the old saying, "if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all?" How often does he mutter that to himself? Last season was definitely a breakthrough season for Wright as coach of the Villanova Wildcats as they finished 11-5 in the Big East conference and advanced to the sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament where they had a chance to tie the game against eventual National Champion North Carolina in the last minute, but a contoversial travelling call wiped out that chance. Even last year key players such as Kyle Lowry, Mike Nardi, Jason Fraser and Curtis Sumpter missed important games because of injury. Since the season ended, Fraser, Sumpter, Marcus Austin and Chris Charles have all undergone additional surgical procedures, nearly wiping out thier entire frontline.

Things seemed to be on track as Sumpter and Fraser were showing encouraging signs in their rehabilitiation from the offseason injuries. The excitement surrounding the program was due to a consensous top 10 preseason ranking and Final Four thoughts danced in their heads. But, remember, if it weren't for bad luck...

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Just prior to heading the NYC for the Big East Media Day event, the news hit the wires, Curtis Sumpter re-injured his surgically repaired knee. Sumpter is scheduled to undergo another surgery on the injured knee and his availability for the season is very much in doubt. With Fraser unlikely to be at 100% as he recovers from the delicate microfracture surgery on both knees from last May, suddenly, Villanova looks to be more vulnerable than before.

In today's game, college basketball is a guard's game. And, luckily for Villanova, they do have guards! Last year in the game with North Carolina, Jay Wright played to his strength and started 4 guards in the game with Mike Nardi, Kyle Lowry, Randy Foye and Allan Ray. Foye and Ray are all-league level performers who both could end up as 1st team all-league members. Lowry most likely will be a 1st team all-league player in the near future and Nardi is a solid, heady player that could be considered the glue that holds them together. The Villanova guard quartet is good enough, on their own, to keep Villanova in any game by spreading out the floor and creating opportunities for their excellent 3-pt shooters to make defense pay when they have to help. Lowry and Foye are tremendous at getting to the lane and Nardi and Ray are excellent from long range and know where to set up. Defensively, these guys also can get after it with extending the pressure to disrupt the offensive flow of their opponents, making up for a lack of inside presence or rebounding skill.

Last year, Jay Wright's heralded first recruiting class of Ray, Foye, Sumpter and Fraser became upperclassmen and the way the matured on the floor was impressive. As a team, Villanova went from committing 16.3 turnovers a game in 2003-2004 and a -2.9 TO differential to a team that turned it over just 12.8 times a game and a TO differential of +3.7 in 2004-2005. That is a net change of 6.6 possessions a game, and, with an average scoring differential of 11 points a game, a very big difference. It shows their strength in their guards and how much they have matured since their freshmen season.

Villanova is a very good shooting team, once again displaying their perimeter strengths. As a team they shot 36% from beyond the arc and 74% from the foul line. Allan Ray led the way with 16 PPG and Randy Foye did a little bit of everything averaging 15.5 PPG, nearly 5 rebounds, 3 assists and just over 2 steals a game. He plays very well on both ends of the floor and does the little things. Mike Nardi shared more of the load with Kyle Lowry last year and saw some numbers drop from his freshmen season, despite his minutes increasing a little bit. Lowry is someone to keep an eye on this season. The 5'11 guard is tough as nails and was a key player down the stretch after recovering from a preseason knee injury. The fiery competitor is a great one on one player that is a true scorer. Adding to the depth in the backcourt this seaoson is Lowry's high school teammte Bilal Benn. Benn is a 6'4 guard that can play all three perimeter positions and will add additional defense this season. Swing player Dewayne Anderson is another source of offense for the Wildcats. Anderson might find some limited minutes behind the other guards, but is a player that will be counted on in the future to score the ball.

Sumpter is a huge loss as he averaged 15 PPG and was their leading rebounder at nearly 8 a game. He was a tough match-up for forwards in the league with his ability to go inside and outside. He could post up small forwards or take the power forwards outside and he battled hard on the boards and on the defensive side. Freshmen Dante Cunningham should see an increased role with Sumpter's injury and he has the inside/outside potential to be a very similar player, but it wont happen right away. He is an underrated freshmen that might surprise many observers around the league with his production, but it will still be a major drop-off from Sumpter. Villanova did recently get some good news as Shane Clark, another former high school teammate of Lowry and Benn, will be able to join the team late in December and could be ready to contribute come conference time. Clark is a 6'7 forward that is very athletic. He has some exciting upside, but missing the first semester will make it hard to get into the flow.

In the post the Wildcats will hope to have Jason Fraser available for extended periods of time, however, microfracture surgery on one knee is a difficult rehab to predict, let alone on both knees. Fraser, when on the floor, is one of the best shot blockers in the nation and also adds rebounding to the mix. In just over 21 minutes a game last year, Fraser averaged 2.4 blocks and 6.7 rebounds. Villanova hopes he can give those same minutes, if he does, expect the production to rise even more. Will Sheridan is usually the starter in the middle. The junior averaged 5 points and 6 rebounds a game last year in 26 minutes a game. Usually an after-thought offensively, Sheridan plays a key role on defense and keeping the opposing big men off the boards. With Sumpter out, Sheridan is going to have to ramp up his production. 7'0 senior Chris Charles also provides depth upfront. A preseason wrist injury has put him on the shelf for the time being. He could provide some spot minutes when healthy. Frank Tchuisi is a raw and athletic big man that joins the Wildcats this season. I do not see him factoring much into the rotation this season.

Coming into the season, Villanova had catapulted themselves to the top of the charts in the Big East and there was a high demand for them to be on television. With that cam a very tough schedule in the conference with mirror games with Connecticut, Syracuse and Louisville. They do not play either Pittsburgh or Providence. They do host Georgetown and West Virginia.

The Villanova guards will win their share of games alone for Villanova. However, some nights, they will not be shooting well and they really do not have much to fall back on for a consistent source of production. This is going to cost them several times over the course of the seaosn, which will drop them from being among the top 2 in the league closer towards a member of the top 4-6. They will be vulnerable to teams that can defend the perimeter and score and rebound well inside. There is still a lot to be excited about with this team and they have the guard play that can get hot and lead them on a march run, but over a 2-month conference marathon, they will take their share of hits and lose some games.

Projected Big East Record: 11-5

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ROSTER UPDATE

ROSTER ALERT: SHANE CLARK JOINS VILLANOVA

COMMITMENT ALERT: Antonio Pena (F), St Thomas More (Conn)

Projected 2006-2007 Roster:

Seniors: Mike Nardi (PG), Will Sheridan (PF)
Junior: Kyle Lowry (G)
Sophomores: Frank Tchuisi (F), Bilal Benn (G), Dwayne Anderson (SG), Dante Cunningham (F), Shane Clark (F)
Freshmen: Kraidon Woods (F), Andrew Ott (C), Reggie Redding (G), Casseim Drummond (C), Antonio Pena (F)

Article from Villanova's Official Men's basketball webpage on Shane Clark joining the program: Shane Clark Accepted into Villanova.

With the addition of Shane Clark, the recruiting for the 2006 class is officially over for now. This will leave the Wildcats with 2 potential scholarships for the 2007 class.

Clark is a versatile and athletic forward that played high school basketball with Bilal Benn and Kyle Lowry. As a junior, he committed to Villanova but opened the process back up after the summer and committed to Maryland prior to the signing period his senior season. However, his trascript was not accepted and he did not gain admission into Maryland. Once the problem was ironed out with the NCAA, Clark decided to return how and attend Villanova. He will be available once the first semester ends and could be playing just prior to Christmas. With the injury to Curtis Sumpter, Villanova could use the depth upfront. Clark is a valuable addition to the Villanova team.

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RECRUITING UPDATE

COMMITMENT ALERT: Antonio Pena (F), St Thomas More (Conn)

Projected 2006-2007 Roster:

Seniors: Mike Nardi (PG), Will Sheridan (PF)
Junior: Kyle Lowry (G)
Sophomores: Frank Tchuisi (F), Bilal Benn (G), Dwayne Anderson (SG), Dante Cunningham (F)
Freshmen: Kraidon Woods (F), Andrew Ott (C), Reggie Redding (G), Casseim Drummond (C), Antonio Pena (F)


Recruiting Round-Up from 7/13 with Nova: LINK.
See earlier Villanova Recruiting Reports: July 8 Update June 23 Update



As we guessed back in June, Antonio Pena has joined the Villanova recruiting class (see stories from Philly Inquirer and Daily News in today's Notes article). The front court is getting a little crowded with Ott, Drummond and Woods pledged for 2006 along with Pena plus Tchuisi and Cunningham in the fold as freshmen in 2005. However, Villanova got a very efficient working forward that can go inside and is improving at going outside and uses his body well to rebound and score around the basket. This is a very good pick-up in the Big East Conference.

A point guard may really be the next area of concern for the Wildcats in their recruiting priorities. Eugene Harvey is a player that could become more involved with them over the summer. Earl Clark can definitely handle the ball like a PG, but he could have some trouble playing the spot solely. With Nardi and Lowry still on the 2006 roster, PG might not be that much of a priority, but we shall see. Earl Pettis is another very versatile guard that could figure into the Villanova recruiting mix as they do like to play a 3-guard offense, which does make you wonder if they have room for any more guys upfront.

With one scholarship left, it most definitely is being left on the table for Earl Clark. I would be really surprised if Villanova added another recruit before Clark makes a decision. Clark has hinted around the idea of playing college ball with Lance Thomas and Derrick Caracter and all three have had Villanova, Rutgers and Louisville high on their lists, however, nobody seems to have three scholarships available and only Rutgers has two left at this point. Clark has leaned toward Villanova for a long time and Thomas and Caracter defintiely seem to be out of the picture right now.

Villanova is a hot name in recruiting right now and Jay Wright seems to be getting things done in a hurry for this class which will only make him even more dangerous in 2007! There may only be 2 scholarships open for them in 2007, but they can work on some of the best right away.

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PROGRAM PROFILE

VILLANOVA UNIVERSITY WILDCATS

2005-2006 Team Roster from Official Team Site: ROSTER.

The Villanova Coaching Staff: VU Staff.

Home Court: The Pavilion: On-Campus Home. Villanova also plays many home Big East games at the Wachovia Center.

OVERVIEW: This is what everyone around the Villanova program has been waiting for since Jay Wright took over for Steve Lappas after the conclusion of the 2000-2001 season. The 43 year old Wright came to Villanova after taking Hofstra to back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances in 2000 and 2001 and led Villanova back to the NCAA tournament in his 4th season with a 24-8 record. The season ended in the Sweet 16 with a close lose to the eventual national champion North Carolina. After three straight NIT appearances, the 2004-2005 season was a definite breakthrough year for Wright and his Villanova program.
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With the success of last season, expectations are now running very high along the Main Line of Philadelphia. The Wildcats return everyone from their successful 2004-2005 club and welcome 4 new recruits to give Coach Wright a full compliment of players to choose from. One of the problems in Wright’s first three seasons were a lack of depth and injuries. The injury bug remained last year as Kyle Lowry, Mike Nardi, Jason Fraser and Curtis Sumpter all missed games because of injury and the concern for this year will be on the health of both Fraser and Sumpter once again as they are very big keys to how much success this consensus top 10 preseason team will achieve.

IT’S A GUARDS GAME: As much as we will key on their front line, it is the backcourt that makes this team go and when Sumpter went down in the NCAA tournament, Coach Wright turned to a 4-guard line-up and it very nearly pulled off a shocker against North Carolina. These guards will again be the engine that makes the Wildcats go and they really do look a lot like the Illinois team that got to last year’s championship final and they could even be better if Sumpter and Fraser can be close to 100% for an entire season. College basketball has definitely evolved into a guard’s game and nobody will have as talented of a group to choose from as Jay Wright with Mike Nardi, Kyle Lowry, Allan Ray and Randy Foye. Ray, Foye, Sumpter and Fraser were all part of Wright’s heralded first recruiting class to Villanova and the expectations for their final season have been building higher and higher since the mid-point of last season and are ready to explode.

RETURNEES: As I said, they return EVERYONE! Even Marcus Austin is returning as a graduate student to be part of what is expected to be THE year at Villanova. The most often used starting line-up last season was Mike Nardi at the PG, Allan Ray and Randy Foye at the wings and Curtis Sumpter and Will Sheridan in the frontcourt. Jason Fraser was used in a reserve role to limit the stress on his knees and was able to finish 2nd in the Big East in blocked shots. He also had a 25 pt 13 rebound game against Providence and came up huge against Florida in the NCAA 2nd round tournament game with 21 points and 15 rebounds. IF he can stay healthy (Fraser has undergone 7 surgeries in 30 months), the Wildcats have a luxury that few teams will have and with their backcourt pressure defense in the half court, having that presence in the frontcourt to block shots and snap outlet passes to the guards plays perfectly into their style. Another player coming off the bench that could start for nearly anyone else is Kyle Lowry. Lowry is a Philadelphia native that missed much of the early season workouts due to a knee injury that many thought could keep him out for the season. Lowry displayed that toughness and added instant energy when inserted to the game and played without any fear, a tremendous trait for a freshmen. Lowry had his national coming out part against North Carolina with 18 pts and 7 rebounds. Is a perfect compliment to the other three Nova guards. Nardi, Ray and Foye are each very deadly 3-pt shooters and thrive in a 3-guard set. Each is able to put the ball on the floor with a dribble drive that draws help defense and can pass back out to another guard for an open 3-pt shot and they each can bury them with great accuracy. Ray and Foye are high-level all-league players and Nardi is a solid ball handler. Curtis Sumpter and Will Sheridan round out the starting five for the Wildcats. Sumpter is a tough match-up for most forwards in the Big East with his ability to play inside and outside. When he is hitting from the perimeter he is nearly impossible to guard for most big forwards in the Big East because he can put the ball on the floor and go past you. He teams with Sheridan inside who provides a defense presence that showed improvements offensively throughout the season last year. Marcus Austin is a skilled power forward that provides some depth and Chris Charles is a seldom used 7-footer that also provides depth up front.

INCOMING: Coach Wright has always been known as a very good recruiter and he brings in a very solid group of four newcomers into the mix. The most anticipated newcomer is probably Dante Cunningham who was the Metro Player of the Year in DC last year and is a 6’7 combo-forward that could be the perfect back-up to Curtis Sumpter. Dwayne Anderson is a 6’6 swingman that adds another element of shooting to the deadly arsenal of 3-pt shooters the Wildcats have in their stable and Bilal Benn is a big guard that can add some defense and ball handling to the mix. Benn and Kyle Lowry played high school basketball together in Philadelphia. Another prep school player that joins the Wildcats is 6’9 Frank Tchuisi from St Benedict’s of New Jersey. Each of these 4 players will be expected to add depth in the program and should see some action during the season, but with the amount of talent returning, it is a good year to get their feet wet.



LOSSES: Everyone is back and ready to enjoy the ride!

SCHEDULE: Villanova is a team in demand and people want to see them against the top of the Big East and that has led them to one of the league’s toughest slates. They have one of the top 4 schedules in the conference as they mirror Connecticut, Louisville and Syracuse. They do not play Pittsburgh or Providence this season. They also have to travel to Cincinnati and Notre Dame and they host West Virginia and Georgetown among the other contenders. This schedule will have them ready for the challenges that will lie ahead in the NCAA tournament and Villanova has the depth to make it through in fine fashion.

OUTLOOK: It is probably unfair to pin a Final Four or Bust label on any team and there are so many potential pitfalls a team could face, but, after seeing Illinois go wire to wire as a final four contender, you have to like the chances for Villanova to be something similar in 2005-2006. They have the guards and now they have depth at guard. With Sumpter and Fraser upfront and players like Sheridan and the freshmen Cunningham, they also have enough front court depth top get by. This is a team with their ability to defend on the perimeter that will be very tough come tournament time and if they can get through the season healthy, should be right in the thick of things come March. A top 2 Big East team and Final Four contender is definitely what we are looking at.

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