Villanova Season Preview

Do you think Jay Wright is familiar with the old saying, "if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all?" How often does he mutter that to himself? Last season was definitely a breakthrough season for Wright as coach of the Villanova Wildcats as they finished 11-5 in the Big East conference and advanced to the sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament where they had a chance to tie the game against eventual National Champion North Carolina in the last minute, but a contoversial travelling call wiped out that chance. Even last year key players such as Kyle Lowry, Mike Nardi, Jason Fraser and Curtis Sumpter missed important games because of injury. Since the season ended, Fraser, Sumpter, Marcus Austin and Chris Charles have all undergone additional surgical procedures, nearly wiping out thier entire frontline.

Things seemed to be on track as Sumpter and Fraser were showing encouraging signs in their rehabilitiation from the offseason injuries. The excitement surrounding the program was due to a consensous top 10 preseason ranking and Final Four thoughts danced in their heads. But, remember, if it weren't for bad luck...

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Just prior to heading the NYC for the Big East Media Day event, the news hit the wires, Curtis Sumpter re-injured his surgically repaired knee. Sumpter is scheduled to undergo another surgery on the injured knee and his availability for the season is very much in doubt. With Fraser unlikely to be at 100% as he recovers from the delicate microfracture surgery on both knees from last May, suddenly, Villanova looks to be more vulnerable than before.

In today's game, college basketball is a guard's game. And, luckily for Villanova, they do have guards! Last year in the game with North Carolina, Jay Wright played to his strength and started 4 guards in the game with Mike Nardi, Kyle Lowry, Randy Foye and Allan Ray. Foye and Ray are all-league level performers who both could end up as 1st team all-league members. Lowry most likely will be a 1st team all-league player in the near future and Nardi is a solid, heady player that could be considered the glue that holds them together. The Villanova guard quartet is good enough, on their own, to keep Villanova in any game by spreading out the floor and creating opportunities for their excellent 3-pt shooters to make defense pay when they have to help. Lowry and Foye are tremendous at getting to the lane and Nardi and Ray are excellent from long range and know where to set up. Defensively, these guys also can get after it with extending the pressure to disrupt the offensive flow of their opponents, making up for a lack of inside presence or rebounding skill.

Last year, Jay Wright's heralded first recruiting class of Ray, Foye, Sumpter and Fraser became upperclassmen and the way the matured on the floor was impressive. As a team, Villanova went from committing 16.3 turnovers a game in 2003-2004 and a -2.9 TO differential to a team that turned it over just 12.8 times a game and a TO differential of +3.7 in 2004-2005. That is a net change of 6.6 possessions a game, and, with an average scoring differential of 11 points a game, a very big difference. It shows their strength in their guards and how much they have matured since their freshmen season.

Villanova is a very good shooting team, once again displaying their perimeter strengths. As a team they shot 36% from beyond the arc and 74% from the foul line. Allan Ray led the way with 16 PPG and Randy Foye did a little bit of everything averaging 15.5 PPG, nearly 5 rebounds, 3 assists and just over 2 steals a game. He plays very well on both ends of the floor and does the little things. Mike Nardi shared more of the load with Kyle Lowry last year and saw some numbers drop from his freshmen season, despite his minutes increasing a little bit. Lowry is someone to keep an eye on this season. The 5'11 guard is tough as nails and was a key player down the stretch after recovering from a preseason knee injury. The fiery competitor is a great one on one player that is a true scorer. Adding to the depth in the backcourt this seaoson is Lowry's high school teammte Bilal Benn. Benn is a 6'4 guard that can play all three perimeter positions and will add additional defense this season. Swing player Dewayne Anderson is another source of offense for the Wildcats. Anderson might find some limited minutes behind the other guards, but is a player that will be counted on in the future to score the ball.

Sumpter is a huge loss as he averaged 15 PPG and was their leading rebounder at nearly 8 a game. He was a tough match-up for forwards in the league with his ability to go inside and outside. He could post up small forwards or take the power forwards outside and he battled hard on the boards and on the defensive side. Freshmen Dante Cunningham should see an increased role with Sumpter's injury and he has the inside/outside potential to be a very similar player, but it wont happen right away. He is an underrated freshmen that might surprise many observers around the league with his production, but it will still be a major drop-off from Sumpter. Villanova did recently get some good news as Shane Clark, another former high school teammate of Lowry and Benn, will be able to join the team late in December and could be ready to contribute come conference time. Clark is a 6'7 forward that is very athletic. He has some exciting upside, but missing the first semester will make it hard to get into the flow.

In the post the Wildcats will hope to have Jason Fraser available for extended periods of time, however, microfracture surgery on one knee is a difficult rehab to predict, let alone on both knees. Fraser, when on the floor, is one of the best shot blockers in the nation and also adds rebounding to the mix. In just over 21 minutes a game last year, Fraser averaged 2.4 blocks and 6.7 rebounds. Villanova hopes he can give those same minutes, if he does, expect the production to rise even more. Will Sheridan is usually the starter in the middle. The junior averaged 5 points and 6 rebounds a game last year in 26 minutes a game. Usually an after-thought offensively, Sheridan plays a key role on defense and keeping the opposing big men off the boards. With Sumpter out, Sheridan is going to have to ramp up his production. 7'0 senior Chris Charles also provides depth upfront. A preseason wrist injury has put him on the shelf for the time being. He could provide some spot minutes when healthy. Frank Tchuisi is a raw and athletic big man that joins the Wildcats this season. I do not see him factoring much into the rotation this season.

Coming into the season, Villanova had catapulted themselves to the top of the charts in the Big East and there was a high demand for them to be on television. With that cam a very tough schedule in the conference with mirror games with Connecticut, Syracuse and Louisville. They do not play either Pittsburgh or Providence. They do host Georgetown and West Virginia.

The Villanova guards will win their share of games alone for Villanova. However, some nights, they will not be shooting well and they really do not have much to fall back on for a consistent source of production. This is going to cost them several times over the course of the seaosn, which will drop them from being among the top 2 in the league closer towards a member of the top 4-6. They will be vulnerable to teams that can defend the perimeter and score and rebound well inside. There is still a lot to be excited about with this team and they have the guard play that can get hot and lead them on a march run, but over a 2-month conference marathon, they will take their share of hits and lose some games.

Projected Big East Record: 11-5